Thursday, May 14, 2009

My interests...

Today I joined a forum just because I wanted to post something on it. Anyway, they asked for my investment and personal interests, of course optional stuff that I always, always ignore. I mean, the less personal info, the better. Today, for the first time, I paused for a few minutes and thought about it. I came up with this:

Investment Interests:
• Only one: obtaining the highest return possible (hopefully > inflation rate) without having my sleep affected. And, believe me, it doesn't take much to wake me up in the middle of the night.

Personal Interests:
• Natural health knowledge.
• Hikerunning or runhiking, whatever you want to call it: that's basically running up and down on mountain trails. Why not just call it trail running? Because sometimes there is no trail so you can't run, you just have to hike. Two words for the wannabes out there: twisted ankles.
• Betting at the Wall Street casino, interest which for a few years offered me two stimulating experiences:
1. many days spent on the couch in fetal position thinking I was a worthless thing
2. many sleepless nights accompanied by abundant sweating
• That’s it, I'm pretty shallow.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Economy

The things might be bad and there is a lot of 24-hour media talk on how bad things are. I heard people saying that this is far worse than 1930’s depression because at that time people did not have credit cards, second mortgages, many of them were self-sufficient, working the land, the society was in an upswing, etc. I agree with all that. I might also add, that to compound the problem we now have the global warming problem and the global obesity/health problem. All these problems are happily fueled by major multinational corporations.


What seems different to me, is that this time around the world is flooded by a sea of material goods (admittedly most of it is junk we don’t need). I look to the US. If you go to a thrift store, you can pretty much get used clothing, house wares, furniture, etc. all of them for a next to nothing price. In the Western Europe, you actually get them for free.


The problem is not that we don’t have enough stuff; the problem is that we have too much stuff, and we don’t really need new junk on the market. The same is true for homes, cars, etc. What we really need is not to stimulate production; it’s to consume the current huge inventory. Yeah, without production the people will lose their jobs. OK but if they live within their means they will survive. Some are screaming that they actually did not buy more house than they could afford but they lost their jobs and now cannot afford the house payment. Ok, here’s the solution. Move to a cheap, small apartment, give up your plasma TV(s), iphone(s), stop dining out and you will survive. Keep just your Internet line (or you can find free wireless Internet depending where you live) and a laptop, use the public library and watch PBS. Keep your bike, give up your GMC Suburban and get a small hatchback car, keep your pet. Eat sensibly and exercise. You are in good shape. This is free advice, nobody is telling you this is the way you should live, it’s a free country. But if you cannot afford anymore your 3000 sqft house and your GM truck don’t ask for help. I came here with my wife and our 8-year old daughter at the time, barely speaking English. I had $2,500 cash in my pocket and two pieces of luggage. We lived in a small apartment and worked. I am glad to say it all worked out well for us. So long as we have our health, we are happy.
The single bad thing that could happen to a person or a family is catastrophic illness. Everything else is peanuts and I have no sympathy for whiners who are in good health. If you are diagnosed with a catastrophic illness (cancer would be the classic example here) then I agree: the state, the community, the government, everyone should form a shield around you and help you. But if you are healthy, you have nothing to complain about. Go live in the slums if you lose your house and have nothing left. You still have your health, that’s what is important. You’ll pull yourself up. There are intelligent, hard working people all over the world who live like sardines, who says that just because we are Americans we need a certain square footage per capita? Live with your parents, this is done everywhere and it’s been always done. It’s good for your finances and it may be good for your health. You're going to bond with your family. Well, perhaps sharing a bathroom is not the most exciting thing but it beats living on the street.

CDS

Every news piece that touches even remotely on economy should start and end with a mentioning of CDS (credit default swaps for the lucky few who lived far away from “civilization” lately). Oh, and it should also be mentioned in the middle of the article as well.

Just a few tens of trillion dollars floating around, no biggie…

The sellers of CDS enjoyed what they thought it was easy money. The buyers, well, I don’t know what they do, what they hope for. End of the world means maximum profit for them, but the catch is that still it is the end of the world, so what do you do with your insurance proceeds in that situation?

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Viva Obi! (I mean Obama)

Obi Kenobi won the elections! I hope he will really tackle the environmental problems we face.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

A pretty eventful week.
Stock market: I took it in the chin big time, but at least I took it like a trooper. It could have been much worse but I had calls written against most of my longs. However my timing to jump into the market could not have been worse. Up 20k until august expiration and now down 40k and counting. I am anxiously waiting for this month expiration on Friday. What seems strange to me is that there is only one week left until expiration, however you can get some good premiums writing out of the money calls, and I mean some of them at 10-30% above current prices. Does someone expect a violent swing to the upside this week, or it's just mispricing due to volatility? I wrote quite a few really out of the money calls, not a lot of cash, but still, at least some pocket change against the deep losses I have on paper.
Yesterday I was watching CHK getting decimated (I have 200), and decided to buy 2 January09 7.5 puts, at least not to be left empty handed. My entry price was $45 and I wrote right there 2 of what I thought were deep in the money calls at 35 and 32.5 for January, expected return was something in the range of 12-15% a year. However, it blew on the downside through my support prices and I was paralyzed, instead of closing my positions right then, I took the wait and see approach and now it's down to $17. I was thinking about how the CEO bought a load of stock in the $50s and I remembered Worldcom's CEO. The wise guys on Wall Street knew that if wcom goes under a certain price the CEO will face margin calls and they took him for a ride shorting the stock until the guy needed to sell everything. And voila, somebody asked cramer last night about chk and he said that its CEO had to sell all the stock due to margin calls. So my gut feeling was right, another "poor" CEO taken for a ride by the wise guys who “helped” him build a strong position into his company stock. Ironically, now we might see a rebound in chk, and when I bought the 2 puts I was thinking that BP put some $1B into chk so it might not go under after all; but their cash situation is not good.
What else hurts me? Umm, let's see. Everything.
BP, big position there, hope it'll keep its dividend. I sold a lot of 60 calls for this week.
COP, a smaller position 200, had many occasions to get rid of it, I did not; have Nov70 calls written against it.
EP, 400, I bought before September expiration it was unusual call activity, thought something was up, instead it went down like a rock along with all the other energy stocks. I had some calls written against it but basically useless.
EMC 1500 had similar unusual call activity in august and September, bought into it, it blew through all my deep in the money calls.
MSFT 1100, wrote October 23 and 20 calls for 7% annualized and bought at 26-27, now I am afraid it'll go through 20, unbelievable.
INTC 1500, all the October 21 calls blown up, 14-15 this week, no comment.
STON, my dividend play, went down some 50%, but I'll hang on to it.
BMY long time holding, it has a nice dividend but I don't have solid calls written against it, so it punished me.
PFE big position, and calls against it, but still, it hurts.
NRG how stupid was that? I bought because Buffett bought. Never again. The truth is it went up immediately so I might have made a quick buck there, but I wrote January deep in the money calls, and like everything else, what seemed then like deep, now it doesn't seem that deep anymore. Crazy...
V still have 100 and 2 2010 100 calls that I should have sold a long time ago. Balanced by a short 65 call January09.
PCN, PTY I really did not understand what I was doing, bought just looking at the yield and seeing that Gross has some 2M shares in PTY. Now seeing him on TV that often, I realize I don't even like the guy.
TAN, PBW, my alternative energy plays, down 50%, no comment. Good thing I got rid of some other plays, or rather they got called.
GE, lots of it long, one of my older positions, don't know why. Lots of out of the money calls written against it, it seems there is some enthusiasm for the stock in the near term, I don't get it.
CSCO short and short puts, some overall short.
QQQQ, short and short puts, some short overall.
NKE short 400, short 4 puts Oct65. Had another -400 and -4 puts Oct70 but got called away, I made something there but nowhere near the losses I got on the long side. And now, the puts seemed like a bad idea; but I did it before earnings, and immediately after earnings it went up decently, so it looked good at the time. Anyway, the puts help me, in that I don't need to make the hardest decision: when to cover.
PG shorted 1k at 67 or so (some was due to last month naked calls) and wrote some October puts at 62.5. amazingly it went thorough 62.5 like a knife through butter. I should have waited more.
KFT, WMT, CL all short and/or wrote naked calls. I wanted to go against the crowd mentality: recession proof stocks, blah, blah. In fact I was thinking that generics will go better in a recession.
XLY shorts but have short puts as well and I needed to cover massive amounts, 2k, because my broker “could not locate the stock for borrowing”. Same happened with SPY. So basically you cannot short at will, that's why I went for the safe plays like PG. Strangely, I could not short WMT for a long time.

Monday, October 06, 2008

revel run 15k

today i feel better for the first time. i slept well last night. i did not have that nagging febrile or sub-febrile state. when i had that, i was miserable. all kinds of thoughts go through your mind: immune system problems, cancer, liver disorders, etc. it's a big nuisance to go through something like this. in addition, many things are happening.
corina does not answer my emails, i am not sure how or if she got the loan for last semester (spring 2007-2008).
the market is tough and i don't see it coming back soon. i have calls sold against most of the stocks i own, but still it's a tough market, i am solidly in the negative territory for the year, and pretty much sure i will be under for the year for the first time since i started trading. the nagging issue is that i cannot short freely.
flori, as usual, was an angel, she cared for me, she cleaned the house and did all she could to make this pass. in addition, she got first place in 5k in 40-44 yo category, she really made me proud.
regarding my health issues, i myself created a perfect storm:
-i ate a raw food diet, mostly vegan
-i got a supplement that lowered my blood sugar level in the morning of the race
-i drank no water during the race
-i ate no sugar gel or raisins during the race
-i ran dressed with a long-sleeved shirt and i overheated (usually i ran bare chested and it was pretty hot outside that day)

in addition, i had some kind of virus a few days before the race, which gave me fever, but i was able to shake it off in one day. however, it seems some of it was left in my body, otherwise i cannot explain the violently negative reaction i had by the end of the race. it is so shocking to think back and realize that you cannot remember crossing the finish line, all i remember was that i could not keep still and felt like i could not control my body. scary... now i understand how terrible is for diabetics when they go though a hypoglycemic episode.

all in all, i was "dead" at the end of the race, flori called 911, it was embarrassing. now it nags me that i could have gotten a much better time, or at least i could have been in the top 10 instead of being the 19th with a time of 1:04:40 in the 15k race. anyway, i know it sounds like bad testosterone, but i am angry at myself, i could have gotten there in under one hour, or at least in the time i got but without being spent at the end. i am still not a professional when it comes with running preps.
a lot of people passed me in the last 2 miles or so. i figured out something was wrong with me probably by the race half.

Labels:

Saturday, April 01, 2006

2006-04-01

RSI letters are out. luckily my daughter got in. she's super happy. i hope she'll make the most out of it.